China copper consumption to grow by 3.7% annually through 2035, Minmetals says

Refined copper consumption in top metals market China shows no signs of peaking and could grow by an average of 3.7% annually over the next decade, a researcher from state-owned China Minmetals Corp said on Tuesday.

China’s demand growth this year will be much lower at about 1%, Zuo Haoen, market research director at Minmetals Non-Ferrous, told the World Copper Conference in Santiago, citing a slowdown in the pace of the energy transition – especially in copper-intensive solar power – and high copper prices.

Under Minmetals’ “most realistic” scenario, Chinese copper consumption will grow by 3.7% a year to 22.95 million metric tons by 2035, up a total 43% from 16 million tons in 2025.

If China’s copper intensity can be maintained, consumption will grow by more than 50% over the decade, Zuo said, noting that the country had ground to make up on developed economies in terms of per capital copper consumption.

The Minmetals forecast is based on a projected population of 1.35 billion in China in 2035. “Even with a mild population decline, future incremental copper demand will remain substantial,” Zuo said.

(By Tom Daly; Editing by Neil Fullick)