Lower supply will push platinum deficit higher than expected in 2025, WPIC says

The global platinum deficit in 2025 will be deeper than previously expected due to weak supply from the recycling sector and lower output from mines in South Africa, the World Platinum Investment Council said on Wednesday.

This year’s deficit of 848,000 troy ounces will, however, be smaller than 2024’s 995,000 ounces due to a 5% fall in demand, the WPIC, whose members are major Western platinum producers, said in a quarterly report.

It had previously projected the 2025 and 2024 shortfall at 539,000 ounces and 682,000 ounces, respectively.

Inflows into physically backed platinum exchange-traded funds due to rising gold prices, and into the Comex exchange stocks due to US tariff-related fears, supported investment in platinum in the final quarter of last year and are expected to continue this year, the WPIC said.

Demand from the auto sector, which uses platinum in catalytic converters to reduce harmful emissions from vehicle exhaust systems, is projected to fall by 1% this year to 3.1 million ounces.

However, the biggest factor behind the change in the deficit estimate since the WPIC’s November report was a 278,000-ounce downgrade in this year’s recycling estimate, as “the anticipated improvement in the market is now considered unlikely to materialize in the near term”.

Global platinum recycling fell in 2024 by 1% to the lowest level in WPIC data going back to 2013, and is expected to increase only marginally in 2025 due to constraints in the supply of spent autocatalysts and declines in jewellery recycling.

To cover the deficit, above-ground stocks will fall by 25% to 2.5 million ounces, equal to less than four months of global demand.

(By Polina Devitt; Editing by Jan Harvey)