Venezuelan crime boss’s demise creates opening for mining boost

Tren de Aragua leader Niño Guerrero’s killing not only fulfills US President Donald Trump’s pledge to go after a criminal group he had identified as a scourge in the US, it also holds the promise of economic benefits in Venezuela.

The joint strike on Guerrero’s base occurred in a remote region that is the heart of a promising gold mining area, and comes amid increasing interest by Venezuela and the US to develop the local industry. They see potential for producing ore legally if illegal extraction and smuggling, which have flourished in recent years, can be eradicated.

As Venezuela seeks to reopen its vast mineral sector to foreign investment, the killing of the crime boss underscores growing security cooperation between the Trump administration and Venezuela’s acting president, Delcy Rodríguez, that’s a backdrop to opening doors in the economy.

Venezuela began increasing its military presence in the southern gold-mining region after passing a mining law in April that opened the sector to private and foreign investment. This week, the military bombed and fired on illegally controlled mines in the Las Claritas region, according to Américo De Grazia, a former local lawmaker.

For Guerrero and his Tren de Aragua gang, Las Claritas offered gold revenue and armed protection, Chris Dalby, an organized crime expert who runs the World of Crime consultancy, wrote on Substack.

Several criminal groups, including dissidents from the Colombian ELN and FARC guerrilla organizations, shared control of Las Claritas and the surrounding mining belt with Tren de Aragua.

“The state’s own officials have long been accused of benefiting from the illegal economy,” Dalby said. “That arrangement could survive under neglect. It could not survive a serious attempt to bring foreign capital back into Venezuelan mining.”

The US has also made efforts to attract investment in the Venezuelan mining sector. In March, the Treasury Department issued a license authorizing sales and exports of Venezuelan-origin minerals, including gold.

“The problem was whether any serious company could operate in mining areas controlled by gangs, guerrillas, armed systems and corrupt local networks,” Dalby said.

Events are unfolding rapidly in a Venezuelan mining belt that boasts vast deposits including gold, coltan and bauxite.

The economic potential is enormous and the mining law isn’t enough, Venezuelan economist and consultant Alejandro Castro said in an interview.

“You also have to bring order to the area through the armed forces or police units to dislodge these irregular groups, so that national or foreign companies can then come in to exploit these deposits with the government,” Castro said.

There’s significant interest from companies in entering the area near Las Claritas, since it’s easily accessible and serves as the gateway to the vast mineral belt, said Leonardo Vera, an economics professor at Central University of Venezuela.

“Bringing order to the exploitation of these mines would allow for some traceability — knowing where the gold comes from, where it is processed, and how much is being processed,” Vera said. “This would make it possible to determine the full production potential and how much would remain for the state and potential private producers.”

Trump announced the killing of Guerrero on Friday, posting a video of a building with a green roof being consumed in a massive explosion. “Tren de Aragua terrorists no longer have safe haven in Venezuela or anywhere else,” said the president, who designated the group as a terrorist organization last year.

The US had offered rewards of as much as $5 million for information leading to the arrest of Guerrero. The gang leader was charged by prosecutors in New York last December with racketeering, terrorism, drug smuggling and other counts.

Centralized structure

Guerrero’s killing is likely to weaken highly centralized Tren de Aragua, said Ronna Rísquez, a Venezuelan journalist who has written a book on the group.

“Niño Guerrero issued direct orders to cell leaders wherever they were located, as they required his authorization to carry out operations,” Rísquez said. None of them can match his leadership capacity, she said.

Targeting the strike near the Las Brisas and Las Cristinas mines, the crown jewels of gold mining in Bolivar state, makes sense, Vera said. “Access is easy, and the investment required is brownfield,” he said.

World of Crime’s Dalby said a range of risks still clouds the picture for would-be investors in a remote, violent, environmentally devastated and institutionally weak region.

“Armed groups may move deeper into the jungle, civilian miners may return under new patrons, and state actors may simply replace criminal ones as the main gatekeepers of extraction,” he said.

(By Alex Vasquez)