BHP now expects nearly 2M tonnes copper production after record Escondida throughput 

BHP Group (ASX: BHP) reinforced confidence in its fiscal 2026 outlook on Wednesday, with solid copper and iron ore performance underpinning expectations that production targets will be met.

In BHP’s operational review for the nine months to March 31, chief executive Mike Henry pointed to record material mined and concentrator throughput at Escondida in Chile and record production at its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations.

BHP now expects full-year production to land in the upper half of its 1.9–2.0M tonne guidance range, thanks to increased production at Antamina in Peru offsetting poorer performance at Spence in Chile.  

At Escondida, record throughput and improved recoveries offset lower grades, keeping production guidance at 1.2–1.275M tonnes and skewed toward the upper end. Antamina has exceeded expectations, with guidance lifted to 150–160 kt on improved grades and operational efficiency. However, weaker performance at Spence, where ore complexity continues to weigh on output, has led to a reduced outlook of 210–220 kt.

BHP’s copper pipeline is making progress, with the company submitting a permit application for a new concentrator at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, that the Melbourne-based company co-owns with Rio Tinto.

During the quarter BHP flagged progress at the Resolution mine, a decades-in-the-making project slated to become one of the largest US sources of copper. Its partner on the Arizona project, Rio Tinto, has embarked on a $500 million drilling campaign to delineate the deposit.

BHP is also re-engaging with Africa with a focus on copper after years of absence, launching exploration workshops across southern Africa, covering Zambia, South Africa, Namibia and Angola.

Western Australia iron ore sets record

Iron ore production, BHP’s largest earnings driver, rose 2% to 197 million tonnes, with full-year guidance unchanged at 258–269 million tonnes. Record output at WAIO, supported by improved rail and port performance, has kept operations on track despite cyclone-related disruptions during the quarter.

At Samarco in Brazil, output has rebounded strongly, with production now expected at the top end of its 7–7.5 million tonne guidance range.

Coal operations were more mixed. Metallurgical coal is expected to fall in the lower half of its 18–20 million tonne guidance range, reflecting heavy rainfall and operational challenges, while energy coal is tracking toward the upper half of its 14–16 million tonne outlook.

Cost pressures

Cost pressures remain elevated across the sector, particularly for diesel and consumables, but BHP said its centralized procurement and low-cost operations have helped mitigate the impact. Henry noted the company is “positioned advantageously in the face of industry-wide pressure,” even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push up input costs.

The balance sheet has also been bolstered by recent transactions to extract value from non-core assets. BHP realised about $4.8B from a combination of the Antamina silver streaming deal and the divestment of Carajás, alongside proceeds from earlier asset sales. 

The update comes ahead of a leadership transition, with Brandon Craig set to take over as chief executive from July 1.

BHP (NYSE:BHP) is the world’s most valuable mining stock with a market cap of $201B in New York.

BHP has ranked first in the MINING.COM Top 50 ranking since its formation in 2001 through a merger with South Africa’s Billiton, and is the only mining firm ever to have spent time above the $200B valuation level. The stock is up 22% so far this year.