Gold price set for worst quarter in 13 years

Gold is on track for its worst quarter in 13 years as war-induced inflation concerns in recent weeks sent the metal on a downward spiral that took out its entire gains in 2026.

Spot prices are trading at just above $4,000 an ounce, having plunged 15% over the past three months and 7.5% on the year. Earlier, it had dipped below that level — viewed as a key support — for the first time since early November.

The yellow metal is now heading towards its first quarterly decline since 2024, and its worst three-month performance since the June quarter of 2013.

Rollercoaster year

Bullion has gone through a rollercoaster ride this year, soaring to a record of nearly $5,600/oz. in January followed by a massive selloff — its worst since the 1980s. An attempt at recovery was cut short by a months-long decline, as the US-Iran conflict escalated into a regional war that sent energy prices higher, raising expectations of interest rate hikes globally and placing sustained pressure on gold.

“There’s pressure on gold because people are not seeing much light at the end of the tunnel,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir, referencing the Middle East conflict that had caused a 25% drop in gold prices since late February.

With the inflationary worries lingering, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s next moves — whether high price levels warrant a rate hike, which many are penciling in for December and may even begin as early as September.

“Markets expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for a prolonged period and may even consider further rate hikes,” Meir said, noting that these expectations were weighing on gold prices.

There are “lingering concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep a hawkish stance despite the sharp decline in energy prices,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told Bloomberg, while adding that some traders may have gained confidence from gold’s rebound from last week’s low.

“However, prices first need to break above $4,100 before it is reasonable to consider that a short-term low may have been established,” he added.

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