CHART: Freeport-McMoRan stock craters on Grasberg ramp-up delay

Quarterly earnings from Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) released on Thursday disappointed investors, with the counter falling by more than 13% in heavy volumes, cutting its market value to below $90B in New York.

While Freeport beat Wall Street estimates for Q1 profits boosted by higher copper prices, investors’ focus was squarely on progress to restore the company’s Indonesian copper and gold mine to full production.

The block cave underground Grasberg mine in the remote Indonesian province of Papua suffered a devastating mud-rush in September and management said in January it is on track to restore 85% of Grasberg’s production capacity by the second half of this year.

In the earnings report, Freeport confirmed that while the phased restart of the Grasberg Block Cave began in late March 2026, the trajectory to full production has slowed materially.

The key change is a reduction in expected operating rates, with second-half 2026 now forecast to reach only about 65% of capacity versus the prior expectation of roughly 85%, and around 80% by mid-2027 before approaching full capacity by year-end 2027.

Freeport now sees the Grasberg complex, jointly owned with the Indonesian government, delivering 0.7B pounds (318,000 tonnes) of copper and 650,000 ounces of gold in 2026 from 800,000 ounces earlier.

This has translated directly into lower 2026 overall company guidance, with consolidated sales cut to approximately 3.1B pounds (1.4M tonnes) from earlier estimates of 3.4B pounds of copper (Grasberg is the only gold mine in the portfolio).

BMO Capital Markets commented on the results, saying “the change to the Grasberg timeline is disappointing and will turn the sentiment more cautious yet again, however, FCX has a plan to resolve the issue.

“Further, the production cut could be supportive of the copper price and with >75% of production outside of Indonesia, the company is set to benefit, especially when considering FCX’s economic interest is higher at operations in north and South America.”

$100B-club

On Wednesday, FCX became only the seventh mining company to hit a $100B-plus market capitalization. Shares in Freeport are still up more than 20% so far in 2026 despite Thursday’s pullback after the stock rebounded following the accident.

Grasberg, situated at an altitude exceeding 4,200 meters (14,000 feet), was the world’s second-largest copper mine and accounted for 3% of the world’s mined copper before the accident that killed seven workers. The mine also ranks as a top 3 gold producer.

The company declared force majeure on its Indonesian shipments in late September, and in its Q4 earnings report said it expects output to reach 1B pounds of copper (450kt) and 900,000 ounces of gold. Production was set to average 1.6B pounds of copper (725kt) and 1.3 million ounces of gold between 2027-2029 before the latest update.

In February, Indonesia’s investment minister and Freeport’s unit in the Asian country signed a memorandum of understanding to extend the company’s mining permit for Grasberg beyond 2041. 

Mined since 1967 by Freeport, during its heyday in the early 2000s the complex in the remote Sudiman mountains hit peak production of 3.5 million ounces of gold and 1.9 billion pounds of copper (861kt). The mine transitioned from an open pit to full underground operations in 2022.

Top 50

Since inception, the MINING.COM TOP 50 was headed by two firms  – BHP and Rio Tinto – the only miners with consistent market capitalizations above $100 billion.  

Before 2025 the only other company to have that distinction was Vale (BOVESPA:VALE3), which for a fleeting few days was also trading above this level during Q1 2022, the market’s previous peak.

Freeport-McMoRan now joins Canadian gold producer Agnico Eagle (TSX:AEM), which in January crossed the mark and Chinese champion Zijin Mining (SHA: 601899), Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO), the mining arm of Grupo Mexico, and Denver’s Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), which rode gold and copper prices all the way to the top towards the end of last year.